Updated 2026-06-03
World Cup 2026 Predictions
Live AI win probabilities for every one of the 48 teams — see who the model favours to lift the trophy in New Jersey, ranked and updated as the tournament unfolds.
$49 · one-time, all 104 matches
Top Contenders
Argentina
FIFA #4 · CONMEBOLSpain
FIFA #2 · UEFAFrance
FIFA #1 · UEFAGermany
FIFA #3 · UEFAMorocco
FIFA #14 · CAFBrowse by Group
All 48 Teams
England
FIFA #5 · UEFANetherlands
FIFA #7 · UEFAColombia
FIFA #10 · CONMEBOLCroatia
FIFA #12 · UEFAJapan
FIFA #13 · AFCPortugal
FIFA #6 · UEFAUSA
FIFA #11 · CONCACAFBrazil
FIFA #5 · CONMEBOLItaly
FIFA #9 · UEFASenegal
FIFA #17 · CAFMexico
FIFA #15 · CONCACAFSwitzerland
FIFA #19 · UEFADenmark
FIFA #21 · UEFAUkraine
FIFA #22 · UEFABelgium
FIFA #8 · UEFAIran
FIFA #20 · AFCSouth Korea
FIFA #23 · AFCAustria
FIFA #25 · UEFAAustralia
FIFA #24 · AFCTBD Playoff (I)
FIFA #0 · TBDTBD Playoff (K)
FIFA #0 · TBDTurkey
FIFA #26 · UEFANorway
FIFA #28 · UEFAEgypt
FIFA #33 · CAFEcuador
FIFA #31 · CONMEBOLSerbia
FIFA #32 · UEFAIvory Coast
FIFA #38 · CAFScotland
FIFA #39 · UEFAAlgeria
FIFA #36 · CAFTunisia
FIFA #37 · CAFCanada
FIFA #40 · CONCACAFQatar
FIFA #45 · AFCCameroon
FIFA #44 · CAFGhana
FIFA #47 · CAFParaguay
FIFA #52 · CONMEBOLPanama
FIFA #55 · CONCACAFSaudi Arabia
FIFA #56 · AFCSouth Africa
FIFA #59 · CAFUzbekistan
FIFA #62 · AFCJordan
FIFA #70 · AFCCabo Verde
FIFA #68 · CAFCuracao
FIFA #90 · CONCACAFHaiti
FIFA #86 · CONCACAFMethodology
FIFA Ranking (40%)
Why 40%? It's the only input with 30 years of out-of-sample predictive value. We anchor to it, then beat it on the other 60%.
Chemistry Index (30%)
Squad cohesion the ranking ignores: shared minutes, club partnerships, and tactical familiarity. The biggest single edge over bookmaker consensus.
Morale Score (15%)
Recent results, momentum, and locker-room signals. Captures hot streaks the FIFA ranking smooths out — and cold ones the market takes too long to price.
Stability & Familiarity (15%)
Coaching tenure and squad continuity. Tournament football punishes new managers and rebuilt rosters; this weighting catches the contenders quietly already in trouble.
Teams ranked
48
Every qualified nation, by win probability
Host nations
3
USA, Canada and Mexico · 16 host cities
Final
Jul 19
MetLife Stadium, New Jersey
How the 2026 predictions are built
The expanded 48-team World Cup is the hardest edition yet to forecast: 104 matches across 16 host cities in the United States, Canada and Mexico, with extreme swings in climate, altitude and travel. KickOracle assigns every team a win probability from a model that weighs squad strength, chemistry, recent form and fixture context — not FIFA ranking alone — then ranks all 48 nations from favourites to long shots so you can read the whole field at a glance.
- 48 teams, 12 groups, 104 matches — the largest World Cup ever.
- Opener: June 11, 2026 at Estadio Azteca, Mexico City.
- Final: July 19, 2026 at MetLife Stadium, New Jersey.
- Probabilities reflect squad strength and form, not just FIFA ranking.
Who will win the World Cup 2026?
The top tier — the five teams the model rates as genuine favourites — are separated by fine margins, and a single group draw or injury can reshuffle the order. The live ranking surfaces the contenders, the dark horses with a soft path, and the long shots whose win probability the model still tracks. Because the field is so deep, the gap between the fifth and fifteenth team is smaller than in any past tournament.
Live predictions vs. a static preview
A pre-tournament preview freezes on the day it is written. This tool re-ranks as the picture changes — group results, squad news and form all feed back into each team’s win probability. Pair it with the bracket and group-stage simulator to trace exactly how a team’s projected path to the MetLife final shifts match by match.
Frequently asked questions
Who is predicted to win the World Cup 2026?
KickOracle ranks all 48 teams by AI win probability. The favourites tier holds the five highest-rated nations, but margins are tight — check the live ranking for the current order.
How are the World Cup 2026 predictions calculated?
Each team's win probability blends squad strength, chemistry, recent form, morale and stability into one model score, then all 48 nations are ranked — FIFA ranking is only one input, not the whole story.
How many teams are in the World Cup 2026?
The 2026 World Cup expands to 48 teams in 12 groups of four, playing 104 matches across 16 host cities in the United States, Canada and Mexico.
When and where is the World Cup 2026 final?
The final is on July 19, 2026 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The tournament opens on June 11, 2026 at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.
Are these predictions updated during the tournament?
Yes. The ranking re-computes as group results and squad news land, so the favourites and dark horses shift through the tournament rather than staying fixed.
Go deeper on every prediction with Scout Pass
Scout Pass unlocks the full 48-team ranking with live model intelligence — the reasoning behind every win probability, not just the number.
- Live win probability for all 48 teams, not a preview snapshot
- Tactical and squad-change alerts that move the model
- Full player intel and scout reports behind each ranking
- Export the complete prediction table to CSV